The Week That Was (March 20, 2010)
There will be no TWTW from the week of March 27. Ken Haapala is attending and giving a lecture at the Capital Science 2010 Conference hosted by the National Science Foundation. The topic of his lecture is: “Nature Rules the Climate: The Physical Evidence.”
Quote of the Week
“On the one hand is the global scientific consensus, and on the other – given equal weight – are the crackpot theories of industry-financed deniers.” ~ Al Gore, Our Choice, p. 363 center page in special large type emphasis
THIS WEEK:
Last week TWTW discussed part of the IPCC’s methodology as presented in the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of the 2007 Assessment Report (AR4). The IPCC conclusion that it is 90% probable that humans caused the warming in the last 50 years (precise dates not given) requires two key assumptions: 1) the surface datasets relied upon have been rigorously maintained, and 2) all the natural causes of warming are known and included in the models. As readers of TWTW realize, it is likely the datasets have been highly compromised, rendering the IPCC’s conclusions indefensible until the datasets are independently verified.
As to natural causes of temperature increases in the past 50 years, the SPM claims that:
“The observed widespread warming of the atmosphere and ocean, together with ice mass loss, support the conclusion that it is extremely unlikely that global climate change of the past 50 years can be explained without external forcing, and very likely that it is not due to known natural causes alone. {4.8, 5.2, 9.4, 9.5, 9.7}(SPM 1-30-07 p 10).
Put differently, it is only 5% probable that the surface temperature increases can be explained by changes within the earth and its internal climate system, and only 10% probable that they can be explained by all natural changes including changes in solar activity, etc.
This leads to one of nature’s delicious ironies. This winter when much of the inhabited part of the Northern Hemisphere was suffering from extreme cold and snow, as referenced in prior TWTW’s, satellite measurements show that the atmosphere was unusually warm due to a strong El Niño. Yet, the IPCC excludes natural influences for warming, specifically mentioning El Niños, which it considers too short to have an influence. It also excludes the established oscillations of the oceans such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation.
Adding to the irony, on March 6 the Houston Chronicle published an op-ed written by climate scientists, referenced in last week’s TWTW, titled “On global warming, the science is solid.” The scientists claim that the January high temperatures (now February as well) support the IPCC science. Others have made similar claims. Thus, to defend IPCC science some advocates are reduced to attacking IPCC’s scientific findings!
In the next TWTW we will address some of the other contradictions created by the IPCC methodology.
TWTW Clarification and Amplification: Last week, TWTW addressed what has been called “global warming’s evil twin” – ocean acidification – by pointing out the correct term would be declining ocean alkalinity. Not expert in paleoclimate, TWTW referenced the work of Ian Plimer with the statement that carbon dioxide levels have been many times beyond what they are today without any change in ocean pH.
Delightfully, Kenneth Towe challenged the statement and suggested the study: Nature 461, 1110-1113 (22 October 2009) Atmospheric carbon dioxide through the Eocene–Oligocene climate transition by Paul N. Pearson, Gavin L. Foster, Bridget S. Wade which reports that during this period, about 45 to 60 million year ago, atmospheric carbon dioxide ranged between 450 to 1500 ppm (compared to today’s approximately 387 ppm) and for part of this period oceans surfaces had a lower pH – less alkaline than today (http://paleolands.com/pdf/cenozoicCO2. pdf).
TWTW thanks Ken Towe for this clarification and amplification.
ARTICLES:
(A sampling of articles available by visiting www.SEPP.org)
1. Regarding the American Chemical Society public policy Statement On Climate Change:
An Open Letter to Board of Directors of the American Chemical Society. Signed by over 150 past and current members of the Society.
2. Letter to the Institute of physics, UK on its Submission to parliament regarding Climategate
By S. Fred Singer
3. Climategate Was an Academic Disaster Waiting to Happen
By Peter Berkowitz, WSJ, Mar 13, 2010
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB2000 1424052748704131404575117314262655160. html#mod=todays_us_opinion
4. Climate Change: both sides dig in
The Scientific Alliance, UK, Mar 19, 2010
http://www.gaia-technology.com/sa/ newsletters/newsletters.cfm
5. Climategate: the IpCC’s whitewash ‘review’ is the AGW camp’s biggest mistake yet
By Gerald Warner, Telegraph, UK, Mar 12, 2010, [H/t Bob Kay]
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/geraldwarner/ 100029630/climategate-the-ipccswhitewash- review-is-the-agw-camps-biggestmistake-yet/