The 2013 Trump Was a Lot Better on Trade Than the 2016 Version

2013TrumpBetterNot only didn’t presidential candidate Donald Trump step back from his protectionist trade stance, he doubled down in a speech in Pennsylvania.

“Globalization has wiped out our middle class,” he told an audience and promised big changes to U.S. trade policy.

Speaking in front of a pile of recycled materials, Trump called NAFTA, “the worst trade deal in history,” blasted the U.S. free trade agreement with South Korea as being “a job-killing deal,” declared the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) to be a “death blow for American manufacturing,” and vowed to pull out of the agreement.

Here are three points where Trump is flat out wrong.

First, the middle class hasn’t been “wiped out.” The Washington Post’s Robert Samuelson summarizes recent Brookings Institution research. Between 1979 and 2014:

There was a gradual and broad-based shift of Americans from poorer to richer status. Productivity gains have translated into higher living standards more than is generally believed.

Second on NAFTA, trade with Mexico and Canada supports 14 million jobs. Five million of these come from NAFTA. U.S. manufacturing output and exports have continued to increase. That’s a good deal that Trump should appreciate.

Third, TPP, the pacific trade deal Trump derides would add $100 billion in new economic output every year. That’s “more than the GDPs of Paraguay, Jordan, Afghanistan and Honduras, combined.” Again, another good deal.

What Trump Wrote in 2013

The Donald Trump of 2016 spouting protectionism is a far cry from the Donald Trump who penned a 2013 CNN op-ed, calling for more economic unity. That Trump should’ve given his speech today.

Where the 2016 version of Trump threatens to slap tariffs on Chinese and Mexican imports—i.e. raise taxes on American families--the Trump of 2013 sensibly emphasized economic cooperation:

We are now closer to having an economic community in the best sense of the term -- we work with each other for the benefit of all.

I think we've all become aware of the fact that our cultures and economics are intertwined. It's a complex mosaic that cannot be approached with a simple formula for the correct pattern to emerge. In many ways, we are in unchartered waters.

The good news, in one respect, is that what is done affects us all. There won't be any winners or losers as this is not a competition. It's a time for working together for the best of all involved. Never before has the phrase "we're all in this together" had more resonance or relevance.

Now, these are the words of a businessperson who gets the importance of international trade, global supply chains, and foreign direct investment. Closer economic ties among nations allow businesses to sell to new customers, give customers a wider variety of goods and services, and create jobs.

Trump 2013 was correct when he wrote, “The future of Europe, as well as the United States, depends on a cohesive global economy. All of us must work toward together toward that very significant common goal.”

Exactly. Thus Congress should approve TPP and the administration needs to keep negotiating the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the European Union. The United States has had much economic success with previous free trade agreements; we’ll likely see more with these agreements.